Nuclear Energy: Key to Kazakhstan’s net zero Goals by 2060
Kazakhstan, the world’s ninth-largest country by land area and the largest landlocked country, has a population of approximately 19.73 million as of 2024. With extensive fossil fuel reserves, particularly oil and natural gas, Kazakhstan's economy has been largely driven by these resources since gaining independence in 1991. As of 2019, 89.5% of the country's electricity was generated from fossil fuels, with hydropower accounting for 9.4 percent and less than two percent from renewable sources. Coal produced in northern regions provides over 81% of electricity generation. According to the Ministry of Energy, today, the available capacity of existing plants in Kazakhstan is 16,200 MW. Taking into account the planned decommissioning of power plants and provision of reserves, it will be necessary to build about 17 GW of new basic, flexible, and renewable energy capacities by 2035. From 2021 to 2035, average annual growth in consumption is projected at 2.7%, with an average annual GDP growth of 4.5%. Recognizing the need to diversify away from heavy reliance on carbon-based fuel exports, Kazakhstan has looked to develop alternative energy sources, including nuclear power.
Recent Update on Kazakhstan's Nuclear Energy Development
Kazakhstan, positioned as the world's leading uranium producer, is embarking on a strategic pivot towards nuclear energy, driven primarily by imperatives for energy security. Beyond mere economic ambition, this transition represents a proactive stance against future energy uncertainties. The Government Decree of 29 August 2013 marked the inception of this vision, establishing a commission tasked with proposing the siting and configuration of a nuclear power plant within the Republic.
The imminent electricity deficit forecasted for southern Kazakhstan underscores the urgent need for a sustainable energy solution. A nuclear facility, slated to inject 2,800 MW into the national grid, emerges as a pragmatic remedy. The adoption of Generation III+ technology, particularly PWRs and BWRs, aligns with prevailing market trends and prospective projects.
The blueprint for Kazakhstan's inaugural nuclear power plant outlines estimated costs ranging from $10 billion to $15 billion, featuring two reactors with capacities between 1,000 to 1,400 megawatts. Construction endeavors aim for completion within a decade, targeting a launch date of 2035, with the proposed site situated near Ulken village along Lake Balkhash in southeastern Kazakhstan.
In addition to plans for a large nuclear power plant, Kazakhstan is exploring the potential of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). A memorandum of cooperation signed in 2021 between NuScale and Kazakhstan Nuclear Power Plants (KNPP), a branch of the government’s Samruk-Kazyna National Welfare Fund, signifies the nation's openness to innovative solutions. This agreement entails technical collaboration to evaluate NuScale’s SMR technology and its applicability to Kazakhstan's energy landscape.
Kazakhstan has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 15 percent by 2030 and aims to reach carbon neutrality by 2060. To achieve these goals, the country will require implementing effective and targeted policies across its economy. Leveraging its prominence in the global uranium market, Kazakhstan aims to derive 50 percent of its electricity from alternative sources by 2050, with nuclear power playing a pivotal role.
Looking ahead, Kazakhstan is ambitiously developing nuclear power. The government’s draft master plan targets a 4.5% share of nuclear electricity by 2030, necessitating a capacity of 900 megawatts electrical (MWe). With its current capacity at around 20 gigawatts electrical (GWe), the plan aims to meet the projected 2035 energy needs of 27 GW. To realize its nuclear ambitions, Kazakhstan is evaluating potential suppliers, including NuScale Power, GE Hitachi, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power, China National Nuclear Corporation, Rosatom, and EDF Energy. These partnerships are key to advancing Kazakhstan’s nuclear aspirations and contributing to sustainable global energy.
Pathway to Net Zero 2060
As Kazakhstan charts its course towards net zero emissions by 2060, nuclear power emerges as a linchpin of its decarbonization strategy. By targeting a 50% share of electricity from alternative sources by 2050, with nuclear power playing a pivotal role, Kazakhstan demonstrates its unwavering commitment to sustainable energy transition.
The adoption of nuclear energy represents a transformative leap towards a sustainable energy future for Kazakhstan. By capitalizing on its abundant uranium reserves and embracing nuclear technology advancements, Kazakhstan has laid the groundwork for a transition to a low-carbon economy and a pathway to net zero emissions by 2060. As the nation embarks on this journey, strategic investments in nuclear infrastructure, policy reforms, and international collaborations will be critical in realizing Kazakhstan's vision of a cleaner, more resilient energy landscape for future generations.
The collaboration with leading nuclear suppliers and technology providers not only facilitates knowledge transfer and technical expertise but also enhances the efficiency and safety of nuclear infrastructure development. Several key reasons underscore the importance of international partnerships in advancing Kazakhstan's nuclear energy agenda:
Firstly, international partnerships grant access to cutting-edge technology, providing Kazakhstan with state-of-the-art nuclear technologies and engineering solutions that may not be readily available domestically. Collaborating with established nuclear suppliers such as NuScale, GE Hitachi, and Rosatom allows Kazakhstan to leverage their expertise in reactor design, construction, and operation, thereby expediting the deployment of nuclear power plants and bolstering energy security.
Secondly, international partnerships facilitate knowledge exchange and capacity-building initiatives, enabling Kazakhstan to cultivate a skilled workforce and indigenous capabilities in nuclear energy engineering. Through technical collaboration and training programs, local engineers and technicians acquire invaluable experience in nuclear safety protocols, regulatory compliance, and emergency response procedures, laying a robust foundation for the country's nuclear industry ecosystem.
Moreover, international partnerships promote regulatory harmonization and standards compliance, ensuring that Kazakhstan's nuclear infrastructure adheres to stringent safety, security, and non-proliferation guidelines. By aligning with international best practices and regulatory frameworks, Kazakhstan enhances confidence among investors, regulatory agencies, and the public, promoting transparency and accountability in nuclear energy development.
Lastly, collaborative ventures mitigate risks associated with large-scale nuclear projects by sharing financial burdens, technological risks, and regulatory uncertainties. By pooling resources, expertise, and intellectual capital, international partnerships enable Kazakhstan to optimize project timelines, costs, and performance outcomes, thereby maximizing the socio-economic benefits of nuclear energy investment.
The forthcoming public referendum on the establishment of the first nuclear power plant will mark a critical turning point. Kazakhstan's ability to expand its role in the nuclear fuel cycle hinges on investment, technology transfer, and market conditions. Balancing energy security, environmental concerns, and public opinion will be imperative for the program's long-term success.
In navigating these challenges and opportunities, Kazakhstan can actualize its vision of a safe, secure, and sustainable nuclear energy sector that serves as a catalyst for economic growth, environmental stewardship, and energy independence. By leveraging international partnerships, fostering technological innovation, and engaging stakeholders collaboratively, Kazakhstan can chart a course towards a prosperous and resilient nuclear future that benefits its citizens and the global community alike.
