Renewable and Nuclear in Synergy for a Fossil-Free ASEAN
In anticipation of becoming the world's fourth-largest economy by 2030, ASEAN, with its $3.7 trillion GDP and a population exceeding 670 million, is actively addressing the energy challenges accompanying its remarkable economic growth. A 60% surge in energy demand over the past 15 years, largely met by fossil fuels, prompts a proactive diversification of the energy mix and a commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Despite barriers to nuclear energy adoption, including high upfront costs and public skepticism, technological advancements, especially in small modular reactors (SMRs), present a promising solution. Indonesia and the Philippines lead in adopting nuclear energy, collaborating with international partners. The broader vision involves a comprehensive energy transition, acknowledging the need to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and increase the share of renewables and clean technologies, emphasizing a sustainable and green energy future for the ASEAN region.”
Asean Energy Landscape
According to ASEAN's Secretary General, Kao Kim Hourn, ASEAN is poised to become the world's fourth-largest economy by 2030. This projection is based on the fact that its combined gross domestic product (GDP) already stands at approximately $3.7 trillion, and its population exceeds 670 million people. This remarkable economic growth has established ASEAN as the third-largest economy in Asia and the fifth-largest globally. The region's ambitious trajectory places it on track to secure the fourth spot in the global economic ranking by 2030.
Over the past 15 years, the energy demand within this region has surged by an astonishing 60%, as reported by the International Energy Agency (IEA). This surge has primarily been met through the importation of fossil fuels, which now account for over 90% of the increased energy consumption. However, this heavy reliance on non-renewable energy sources has raised concerns about energy supply security and environmental management. Southeast Asia now faces the challenge of reconciling its growing energy demands with these crucial considerations.
Governments across Southeast Asia have recognized the need for a more sustainable and secure energy future. To this end, several countries in the region have committed to ambitious long-term plans. These countries are proactively working to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transition to decarbonized economies. They have set mid-term and long-term objectives aimed at reducing their GHG emissions by at least 20%, a vital step in their journey toward achieving carbon neutrality in the future.
The ASEAN member states (AMS) are actively diversifying their energy mix, a strategic move designed to reduce their over-dependence on fossil fuels. Furthermore, they are exploring alternative energy sources, including renewables and nuclear energy, to enhance the security, affordability, and environmental sustainability of their energy supplies. This concerted effort is indicative of the region's commitment to addressing its energy challenges while simultaneously contributing to global efforts to combat climate change.
Challenges and Prospects Nuclear Energy in ASEAN
The adoption of nuclear technology faces substantial barriers in Southeast Asia. Firstly, the high upfront construction costs of large power reactors present major financial viability challenges, especially for smaller ASEAN economies that lack economies of scale. Secondly, most countries in the region have limited legal-regulatory frameworks and nuclear management bodies to provide effective oversight, undermining investor confidence. Finally , lingering public skepticism rooted in negativity of associated with nuclear technology.
However, promising developments may progressively shift the perception of costs versus benefits for civil nuclear adoption in coming years. The pressing need to satisfy rapidly rising electricity demand while meeting global climate change responsibilities provides underlying motivation. Newer generation reactor designs now emphasis passive safety mechanisms, modularized construction techniques, and built-in cost efficiencies to save time and expense. Some ASEAN members have already begun engaging international partners to cooperate on nuclear technology and knowledge transfers. As technology improves and ASEAN nations achieve higher development status, establishment of credible legislation and independent regulators will likely follow.
Indonesia and the Philippines are currently regarded as frontrunners due to their advancements in developing nuclear energy programs. Indonesia and the Philippines have recently embarked on ambitious programs to establish nuclear power. Both countries have successfully completed Phase 1 of the Integrated Nuclear Infrastructure Review (INIR) assessment in 2009 and 2018 respectively. Indonesia in its Energy Sector Roadmap Towards Net Zero Emission 2060, plans to develop a nuclear power plant by 2039. In parallel, the Philippines is bolstering its nuclear program in response to escalating energy needs, expensive electricity, and a heavy reliance on coal imports. The Philippine Department of Energy (DOE) proposes a strategic energy plan envisioning the establishment with 1,200 megawatts (MW) of capacity planned by 2032, 2,400 MW by 2035, and 4,800 MW by 2050.
Indonesia and the Philippines, are exploring the possibility of incorporating nuclear energy, particularly small modular reactors (SMRs), into their energy portfolios. Collaboration between BRIN, PLN Indonesia Power, and NuScale Power Corporation is underway to assess the feasibility of implementing NuScale's SMR technology in West Kalimantan. The 8-month study, starting in August 2023, aims to evaluate the technology's performance and cost-effectiveness for potential carbon-free power generation.
In the Philippines, Manila Electric Company (Meralco) is collaborating with Ultra Safe Nuclear to explore the Micro-Modular Reactor (MMR). The cooperative agreement includes a four-month pre-feasibility study to assess the potential deployment of MMR in the Philippines, considering financial, technical, safety, and siting aspects.
The Path Towards a Fossil-Fuel Free Future
The primary goal of the energy transition is to reduce pollution by shifting to clean energy, which is critical for energy security, sustainability, and long-term development. However, the dependency on fossil fuels makes shifting to clean energy economically challenging. Thus, there is a need to increase the potential of renewable and clean energy production in every country.
The development of clean energy is essential for countries to meet their zero-emission goals. ASEAN faces tremendous challenges regarding the future energy landscape and how the energy transition will be impacted, given their substantial reliance on fossil fuels for economic and industrial development. According to ACE in 2020, renewables comprised only 14.2% of ASEAN's total primary energy supply. With fossil fuels dominating ASEAN’s current energy mix (nearly 80% from oil, coal and natural gas), deploying clean technologies for fossil fuel use is vital for decarbonizing emissions across ASEAN.
Nuclear energy is a reliable, low-carbon energy source that can complement renewables. The concept of a nuclear-renewable hybrid system has gained momentum as an optimal solution for countries seeking to produce electricity from both sources. This integration and coordination of multiple clean energy generation sources provides an opportunity to maximize utilization of clean technologies, ensuring efficiency and cost-effectiveness. A study by Khalis and Bicer identified small modular reactors (SMRs) as the most suitable advanced reactors for hybridizing nuclear and renewable energy. Co-locating these technologies enhances their competitive edge, ensuring sustainable and green energy supply for future generations.
Compared to traditional large reactors, small modular reactors offer more flexibility and cost savings. Their ability to allow incremental capacity additions, incorporate passive safety features, and suit locations unsuitable for large reactors, makes SMRs an attractive choice. With supportive policies, nuclear energy can provide an affordable and clean option for ASEAN. Moreover, modern nuclear reactor designs include extensive safety features, resulting in very low accident risks.
In summary, transitioning to clean energy is critical for ASEAN countries to meet climate goals while supporting economic growth. An integrated approach utilizing nuclear, renewables and clean fossil fuel technologies provides the most viable path towards a sustainable energy future.
