Nuclear's New Dawn: Is it Now a Vital Part of Asia's Net-Zero Future?
Asia has recognized the critical role nuclear energy plays in meeting its burgeoning energy needs while tackling climate change. Numerous Asian nations have embraced nuclear power as a viable and sustainable solution to reduce their carbon footprint. Currently, Asia boasts approximately 140 operational nuclear reactors, and plans for an additional 40-50 reactors are in place, showcasing Asia's commitment to nuclear energy. The significance of nuclear energy in the global journey towards net-zero emissions was further emphasized during COP 28 in Dubai. A landmark declaration, endorsed by over 20 countries across four continents, called for a tripling of global nuclear energy capacity by 2050. The global endorsement of nuclear energy marks a significant step forward in recognizing its crucial role in achieving net-zero in Asia and globally. This momentum is particularly encouraging for us at NBP, as we have unwavering faith in nuclear energy's potential to address climate change. Witnessing the advancements in nuclear technology and the growing global support for nuclear provides fitting closure to 2023. With optimism, we look forward to a future where nuclear energy plays a vital role in achieving a sustainable future. As we step into this new chapter, we extend our warmest wishes for a Happy New Year filled with hope, prosperity, and a renewed commitment to safeguarding our planet.
Asia Energy Landscape
Asia is home to over 4.7 billion people, which represents roughly 60% of the global population. However, rapid urbanization and a young population have led to increased pressure on resources, infrastructure, and social services. This progress has resulted in a surge in energy demands, with many Asian countries heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels. This leaves them vulnerable to price shocks and supply disruptions. According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Asia and the Pacific accounted for over 50% of global CO2 emissions in 2021, with over half resulting from electricity and heat production. Fossil fuels supply 75% of Asia’s energy needs, with the region accounting for more than half of global fossil fuel consumption. Asia currently consumes over 40% of the world’s energy, and this demand is projected to rise significantly in the coming decades. As nations grapple with the dual challenge of meeting the rising energy demands of their populations and curbing carbon emissions, nuclear power has reemerged as a compelling option. The growing realization that sources alone may not be sufficient to meet the escalating energy needs has reignited interest in nuclear energy.
The Resurgence of Nuclear Power in Asia
According to data from the Power Reactor Information System (PRIS), as of 2023, there are currently 57 nuclear power plants under construction worldwide, with a significant majority (67%) of these projects being undertaken in Asia. In contrast, both Europe and the United States are experiencing a decline in nuclear construction. Notably, China has emerged as the second-largest global nuclear energy producer after the United States, surpassing France in 2020. By June 2023, China's nuclear capacity reached 57 gigawatts (GW).
China, in particular, has witnessed a remarkable expansion of its nuclear industry within the last ten years. The count of reactors in China surged from 13 in 2010 to 53 in 2021, accompanied by a remarkable five-fold growth in nuclear generation capacity. This growth in China's nuclear energy reliance is occurring concurrently with the nation's shift away from coal-based energy sources. Notably, with 21 reactors presently under construction, China is poised to augment its nuclear capacity by over 40% before 2030.
South Korea is following the global trend of increasing nuclear energy's role. The country has set targets to elevate nuclear power's share of electricity generation to 32.4% by 2030 and 34.6% by 2036. These nuclear goals support South Korea's larger mission of cutting greenhouse gas emissions 40% by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Notably, South Korea has reversed its previous nuclear phase-out plan, now reaffirming its dedication to nuclear power with over 23 GW of operational capacity in 2021 and 5 GW more under construction.
Japan, another significant player in the energy realm, revisits nuclear technology. With a resolute aim, the Japanese government targets 20-22% of nuclear energy in its energy mix by the close of the decade. The past ten years have seen Japanese utility companies petition for restarts of 27 reactors, of which 17 have successfully passed safety evaluations, leading to resume operations.
India is playing a major role in the global transition to clean energy. The country plans to expand nuclear power from about three percent currently to 9 to 10 % of its energy mix. It will phase out old coal plants and add nuclear capacity to provide reliable baseline power generation. Recently, India's Minister for Atomic Energy, Dr Jitendra Singh, said India is developing small modular reactors (SMRs) with up to 300 MW capacity to meet its clean energy goals. The NITI Aayog think tank, chaired by the Prime Minister, is now focused on scaling up nuclear power through large reactors and new SMRs. This momentum is further underscored by a recent expression of support from French President Emmanuel Macron, signifying India's global significance. A tangible manifestation of this support comes in the form of a commitment to aid in the construction of six new reactors in Jaitapur, Maharashtra. With a projected capacity of 9,900MW, this endeavour is poised to take its place as the world's largest nuclear plant, poised to cater to the energy needs of approximately 70 million households. As it strides forward, India also has ambitious plans for a thorium-powered reactor, a strategy grounded in the utilisation of this abundant non-fissile radioactive material.
Moreover, several nuclear power projects are underway across Asia. Bangladesh has two new nuclear plants under construction that are expected to begin operating in 2023 or 2024 and supply 9% of the country's electricity. The United Arab Emirates is building one new plant, and Iran has one under construction as well.
Several Asian countries are revisiting their nuclear energy programs. Indonesia and the Philippines, for instance, have embarked on ambitious plans to diversify their energy mixes, aiming to increase the share of nuclear power in their total energy consumption.
Nuclear energy is crucial for achieving global net-zero goals
The role of nuclear energy in the pursuit of global net-zero goals is pivotal. The overarching objective of the ongoing energy transition is to mitigate pollution by transitioning to clean energy sources. This shift is crucial not only for environmental reasons but also for ensuring energy security, fostering sustainability, and promoting long-term development.
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), nuclear power produced about 10% of the world’s electricity in 2018. Together with expanding renewable energy sources and fuel switching from coal to gas, higher nuclear power production contributed to the levelling of global CO2 emissions at 33 gigatonnes in 2019.
As the world grapples with the rising global energy demand, renewable energy sources alone may not be sufficient. In this context, renewed interest has emerged in nuclear energy, a reliable and low-carbon source that can effectively complement renewables. The concept of nuclear-renewable hybrid systems has gained significant traction, offering a promising solution for countries seeking to generate clean electricity from diverse sources. This innovative approach seamlessly integrates and coordinates multiple clean energy generation technologies, maximizing the utilization of these technologies and driving efficiency in energy production. Additionally, the integrated approach enhances cost-effectiveness, making it a compelling option in the pursuit of sustainable energy solutions.
Asia has recognized the critical role nuclear energy plays in meeting its burgeoning energy needs while tackling climate change. Numerous Asian nations have embraced nuclear power as a viable and sustainable solution to reduce their carbon footprint. Currently, Asia boasts approximately 140 operational nuclear reactors, with an impressive 5 operating for over four decades. Furthermore, 30-35 reactors are under construction, and plans for an additional 40-50 reactors are in place, showcasing Asia's commitment to nuclear energy.
The significance of nuclear energy in the global journey towards net-zero emissions was further emphasized during COP 28 in Dubai. A landmark declaration, endorsed by over 20 countries across four continents, called for a tripling of global nuclear energy capacity by 2050. This declaration serves as a testament to the global recognition of nuclear energy's critical role in achieving the shared objective of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
The Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy outlines key elements, including a collaborative commitment to significantly increase global nuclear energy capacity. Notably, participating countries extend invitations to stakeholders of international financial institutions, urging them to advocate for the inclusion of nuclear energy in energy lending policies. The countries endorsing this declaration represent a diverse group spanning multiple continents, including the United States, Bulgaria, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Ghana, Hungary, Japan, Republic of Korea, Moldova, Mongolia, Morocco, Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom.
The global endorsement of nuclear energy marks a significant step forward in recognizing its crucial role in achieving net-zero in Asia and globally. This momentum is particularly encouraging for us at NBP, as we have unwavering faith in nuclear energy's potential to address climate change. Witnessing the advancements in nuclear technology and the growing global support for nuclear provides fitting closure to 2023. With optimism, we look forward to a future where nuclear energy plays a vital role in achieving a sustainable future. As we step into this new chapter, we extend our warmest wishes for a Happy New Year filled with hope, prosperity, and a renewed commitment to safeguarding our planet.
