Indonesia's Presidential Candidates Stand on Nuclear Energy
In the pursuit of a diversified energy portfolio, Indonesia has identified nuclear power as a key potential source to meet its burgeoning electricity needs and satisfy carbon reduction targets. The Energy Sector Roadmap towards Net Zero Emission 2060 outlines a plan to develop the first nuclear power plant by 2039 and achieve a nuclear installed capacity of 31 GW by 2060. The successful completion of Phase 1 of the IAEA Milestone and the formation of a preparatory team for a nuclear energy program implementation organization (NEPIO) demonstrate Indonesia's commitment to integrating nuclear energy into its energy mix.
PT PLN (Perusahaan Listrik Negara), Indonesia's state-owned electricity utility company, holds a critical role in the nation's energy transition. Controlling approximately 69% of the country's generation capacity and maintaining a distribution monopoly, PLN has committed to meeting escalating energy demands while pursuing net-zero emissions by 2060. The company is actively transforming its operations by exploring nuclear energy and clean energy sources, forging international partnerships, and charting an emission reduction trajectory to cut 1,057 million tons of greenhouse gases by 2060. PLN aims to start operating nuclear-based power plants in 2040 with a share of 4 percent. PT Pembangkit Listrik Negara (PLN) (Persero) will develop a nuclear power plant through its subsidiary PLN Indonesia Power (PLN IP) in cooperation with NuScale Power from the US and several other entities.
Nuclear Energy and Government
The idea of integrating nuclear energy into the energy mix is not new, in fact, Indonesia has been exploring nuclear energy since the 1950s. However, for various reasons, nuclear energy development in Indonesia has been sporadic. Indonesia's unique situation presents substantial hurdles to the successful integration of nuclear power. Apart from the technical and environmental challenges, the highly politically sensitive nature of nuclear energy further complicates its adoption in Indonesia.
Over the past several decades, energy policies in Indonesia have exhibited a tendency to undergo significant shifts following political power transitions. This phenomenon poses a considerable challenge to the long-term planning and implementation of nuclear power programs, given their extended timeframe and substantial capital requirements. Incoming administrations in Indonesia often prioritize immediate economic needs over long-term sustainability and energy security. This transition from one administration to another can result in a significant policy direction shift, sometimes even abandoning well-developed programs initiated by predecessors.
As Indonesia stands at the crossroads of its political landscape, the upcoming presidential election in February 2024 brings to the forefront critical discussions about the nation's energy future. With a population nearing 280 million and energy demands escalating, the focus on clean and sustainable energy sources, particularly nuclear energy, is gaining prominence. This analysis delves into the positions of the three presidential candidates – Prabowo Subianto, Anies Baswedan, and Ganjar Pranowo – on nuclear energy and their broader views on clean energy, climate change, and Indonesia's ambitious carbon reduction targets.
Prabowo Subianto's Approach:
Mr. Prabowo Subianto is the General Chairman of the Gerindra Party and currently serves as the Minister of Defense in the administration of President Joko Widodo. Although the vision and mission documents do not explicitly outline targets for increasing contributions from new and renewable energy, Mr. Prabowo emphasizes the necessity of revising regulations that impede new investments in the renewable energy sector. While not explicitly mentioning nuclear energy, Prabowo's commitment to regulatory revisions suggests an openness to exploring diverse energy sources.
In a recent interview with one of Indonesia digital media, he expressed admiration for President Widodo's programs during his presidency and hinted that, if elected as the next president, he would continue President Joko Widodo's term program to further enhance Indonesia. Additionally, Joko Widodo's son has been chosen as the running mate for Indonesia's presidential candidate Prabowo. This alliance indicates a likely continuation of President Joko Widodo's programs, particularly the current effort to formulate a master plan for the advancement of Indonesia with President Joko Widodo's team.
Interestingly, Prabowo has hinted at the possibility of ending the state-run Perusahaan Listrik Negara's (PLN) monopoly. This move could pave the way for renewable power producers, including those in the nuclear sector, to sell electricity directly to consumers. Proponents argue that such a shift would incentivize the adoption of renewables and potentially nuclear energy.
Anies Baswedan's Green Agenda:
Mr. Anies Baswedan, an Indonesian academic, activist, and politician, held the position of Governor of Jakarta from 2017 to 2022. Running as an independent candidate, he received endorsements from the NASDEM, PKS, and PKB parties. He places a significant emphasis on the goal of achieving carbon neutrality or net-zero emissions (NZE) by the year 2060. Collaborating with local governments, he aims to accelerate this target to NZE by 2050. Anies plans to establish a green economic index as a measurable indicator of sustainable development and promises financing incentives and a business-friendly environment in the green sector to attract investments.
Anies recognizes the pivotal role of renewable energy in mitigating climate change, reducing pollution, and decreasing dependency on energy imports. His target is to raise the contribution of renewable energy to 22-25 percent by 2029. Although Anies has not specifically mentioned nuclear energy, his commitment to a diverse and sustainable energy mix aligns with the broader goals of the Energy Sector Roadmap towards Net Zero Emission 2060. He also called for improved leadership for the power sector but has not proposed breaking up PLN’s monopoly.
Ganjar Pranowo's Ambitious Vision:
Mr. Ganjar Pranowo, representing the PDIP Party, has set an ambitious target for the contribution mix of renewable energy and energy conservation (EBT) at 25 to 30 percent by 2029. In pursuit of this goal, he plans to empower local energy sources in rural areas, making villages integral to the national economic greening cluster. Ganjar also emphasizes the preservation of forests and reduction of air pollution to achieve emissions reduction targets.
While Ganjar's vision is predominantly focused on expanding the reach of renewable energy, he has also proposed to focus PLN on expanding power lines and connecting islands, allowing renewable producers to connect electricity onto the grid and to customers. However, his commitment to reducing emissions and enhancing the role of renewable energy aligns with Indonesia's broader clean energy objectives.
Looking Ahead: The Nexus of Leadership and Energy Security
Examining the political climate, Indonesia, as the world's third-largest democracy, is preparing for its presidential election in February, 2024. The end of President Joko Widodo's second term has paved the way for a closely contested race with Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo, and Anies Baswedan being the promising candidates. The diverse democratic platform offers citizens dynamic participation in national governance, making the election a significant determinant of policy continuity and democratic trajectory.
Based on those three candidates, we believe that whoever wins Indonesia’s next election will likely continue to support the nuclear program. Given the fact that Prabowo Subianto already hinted that he would continue President Joko Widodo's programs to further enhance Indonesia.Notably, President Joko Widodo's son joining Prabowo's campaign as a running mate adds a layer of continuity to the existing political landscape.
Similarly, Ganjar Pranowo, affiliated with the same party as Joko Widodo, the PDIP, is also anticipated to uphold the current administration's programs. This affiliation suggests a shared commitment to certain policy directions within the party.
Anies Baswedan's stance on the nuclear energy program is less explicit. However, the endorsement by the NASDEM party, a strong supporter of nuclear energy development in Indonesia, raises the likelihood of a continued commitment to this aspect of the national agenda.
It is crucial to acknowledge the dynamic nature of political developments and alliances in Indonesia. For example, President Joko Widodo used to be a rival with Mr. Prabowo Subianto in the previous presidential election, and is now the Minister of Defense in President Joko Widodo’s cabinet. Even for next year's election, Joko Widodo's son has been chosen as the running mate for Indonesia's presidential candidate Prabowo, which proves how dynamic Indonesian politics is.
At least, regardless of the political intricacies, we, at NBP, earnestly hope that whoever wins the presidential election in Indonesia next year can bring about a better Indonesia, and that Indonesia can realize its first operated nuclear power plant. Because at the heart of what we do, we firmly believe that nuclear energy is pivotal in the fight against climate change, and countries must include nuclear energy in discussions to achieve decarbonization goals.
