Nuclear Capacity Expansion in Türkiye: Path to 20 GW by 2050
Türkiye's nuclear capacity expansion is becoming a cornerstone of its energy strategy as the nation rapidly emerges as a pivotal player in the global energy landscape. With rapid economic growth and a rising population, Türkiye has seen the fastest-growing energy consumption rate among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries in the past 2 decades. In this period, Türkiye ranks second to China in the increase in electricity and natural gas demand in the world. Now, as Türkiye embarks on its nuclear capacity expansion goals, it seeks to secure a reliable power supply while addressing the growing energy needs driven by additional industrial and economic developments.
Energy Consumption and Future Projections
In 2023, Türkiye's electricity consumption reached approximately 330.3 terawatt-hours (TWh), with projections estimating it will surge to 380.2 TWh by 2025, 455.3 TWh by 2030, and 510.5 TWh by 2035. This represents a significant rise from past years, with overall energy consumption more than doubling between 2001 and 2021.
As of 2023, Türkiye's electricity generation is dominated by fossil fuels, with approximately 53% derived from coal (34%) and natural gas (18%). Meanwhile, renewable energy sources constitute about 46% of the electricity supply, with hydropower making up over 22%. However, Türkiye's heavy reliance on imported energy—approximately 74% of its total energy needs—makes it highly vulnerable to external shocks and price volatility, particularly in natural gas and oil.
Nuclear Energy: A Strategic Pillar for Energy Security
The National Energy Plan (2020–2035) emphasizes nuclear energy as a cornerstone for Türkiye's future energy strategy. The country aims to increase its total electricity generation capacity to 189.7 GW by 2035, with nuclear power playing a critical role in achieving this ambitious target. By 2035, Türkiye plans to reach a nuclear capacity of 7.2 GW, with a long-term goal of 20 GW by 2050. This strategic commitment underscores the role of nuclear energy in ensuring a stable, low-carbon energy supply and in driving Türkiye’s transition to net-zero emissions by 2053.
Nuclear energy will provide a stable, continuous power supply to complement the intermittency of renewable sources such as wind and solar, which are often dependent on weather conditions. The reliability of nuclear power is crucial in maintaining grid stability, especially as Türkiye’s industrial, urban, and technological advancements demand increasing energy availability.
Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant: A Milestone in Türkiye’s Energy Evolution
The Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, located in Mersin Province, marks Türkiye’s first foray into nuclear energy. This 4.8 GW facility, comprising four units of 1.2 GW each, will contribute approximately 10% to Türkiye’s electricity upon completion. The plant uses VVER-1200 reactors, a Generation III+ design that incorporates advanced safety features.
The Akkuyu project is a symbol of Türkiye's deepening energy partnership with Russia, driven by the Build-Own-Operate (BOO) model. Russia’s state-owned Rosatom is responsible for the entire project, investing over $20 billion and managing its operations. This model minimizes Türkiye’s financial risks while accelerating the country’s nuclear capabilities. The completion of Akkuyu is expected to establish Türkiye as a leader in nuclear energy within the region.
Sinop Nuclear Power Plant: A Significant Second Project
The Sinop Nuclear Power Plant is Türkiye’s second major nuclear project, located in the Sinop Province along the Black Sea coast. Like Akkuyu, the Sinop NPP will have an installed capacity of 4.8 GW, with four units of 1.2 GW each. Though Russia currently leads the bid for the Sinop project , South Korea’s Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) is a key contender for the contract, proposing its reliable APR1400 reactors for the project. With an estimated investment of $30 billion, Sinop NPP will further bolster Türkiye’s nuclear energy capacity and play a significant role in the nation’s energy transition. Türkiye still remains open to international partnerships and collaborations as it continues to expand its nuclear energy capacity.
Thrace Nuclear Power Plant: Expanding Energy Horizons
Türkiye’s third proposed nuclear facility, the Thrace Nuclear Power Plan, is planned for the Eastern Thrace region in Kirklareli province. This project, with a total installed capacity of 5.6 GW, comprising four units 1.4 GW reactors, will play a critical role in meeting Türkiye’s growing energy demands. China’s State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC) is the leading contender for the project, with its advanced CAP1400 reactor technology, known for enhanced safety features and efficiency. The Thrace NPP is a key part of Türkiye’s energy strategy, offering a significant boost to the nation’s nuclear capacity while diversifying its energy sources.
Modular Reactor Technologies: The Future of Nuclear in Türkiye
Looking forward, Türkiye has set ambitious goals for deploying Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) as part of its nuclear expansion strategy. With a target of 5 GW from SMRs to be achieved by 2050, Türkiye is embracing innovative nuclear technologies to fast-track its energy transition. U.S. companies such as Westinghouse Electric Co. are actively engaged in negotiations with Türkiye to support the SMR initiative, while Rolls-Royce has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to explore the feasibility of deploying its SMR technology. Rolls-Royce’s SMR design, with a projected output of 400–450 MWe, holds the potential to play a pivotal role in Türkiye’s SMR strategy.
The growing interest in Türkiye’s SMR market, which is projected to reach between $10-30 billion by 2050, underscores the country’s commitment to modernizing its nuclear sector. This presents significant opportunities for international nuclear businesses to partner with Türkiye in developing next-generation nuclear technologies.
Hence, as Türkiye advances its ambitious nuclear energy plans, the nation is not only strengthening its energy security but also establishing a vibrant market for nuclear technology and innovation. With significant investments, cutting-edge projects, and a clear government commitment to diversifying its energy portfolio, Türkiye offers a prime opportunity for nuclear businesses aiming to expand globally. The scope for involvement spans reactor technology, construction, fuel supply, SMR development, and financing, creating a comprehensive business landscape ripe for investment.
International nuclear companies—whether technology providers, construction firms, or financial institutions—will find Türkiye’s evolving nuclear sector an ideal platform for collaboration and growth. By partnering with Türkiye, businesses can access a rapidly growing energy market while playing a key role in driving the global transition to clean, reliable, and sustainable energy sources. This partnership not only promises long-term commercial success but also positions companies at the forefront of shaping the future of nuclear power.
